Trump vs Kamala: Who's winning online?

+ The horny Dunkin spider's breakout moment, Flop Tuah, Bald Ann Dowd speaks out, and A24's new Smell-O-Vision

Happy Halloween!! 🎃🎃🎃 We’re less than one week out from the election so I thought I’d dive into a recent Hootsuite report and some of the latest info that’s come out on how the two candidates are doing online.

Trump vs Kamala’s battle for the internet

via Hootsuite

Social listening and analytics firm Hootsuite took a look at how the 2024 U.S. presidential campaigns are resonating with online audiences. A few key findings:

• Keywords related to Donald Trump generated nearly 50% more results than those related to Kamala Harris. (almost 3 posts mentioning Trump for every 2 posts mentioning Harris).

• Sentiment analysis showed that over the past 3 months the majority of social media posts referencing either candidate are negative.

• Harris has more positive sentiment in the 65+ age group, whereas Trump has more positive sentiment amongst all other age groups.

I think the fundamental difference in strategy between Trump vs Harris this cycle boils down to shortform vs longform. Harris leaned hard into short form content after launching her campaign this summer, successfully dominating TikTok and viral IG type accounts. Meanwhile, Trump sat for hours-long livestreams and built parasocial bonds with young male voters through podcasts.

I was talking to longtime creator economy expert Brendan Gahan, about this issue back in August. Short form creators, while they’re able to gain a massive amount of attention very quickly, struggle to get their audience to form deep, lasting relationships. This leads to a more passive and transient fandom around creators who lean into short form.

Gahan worried Harris might fall victim to these same dynamics. Aside from a heavily produced episode of Call Her Daddy and a few other sit downs, Harris has avoided doing long form unscripted content.

Her team’s recent discussions with Rogan reiterate this issue. While it’s understandable that a candidate wouldn’t be able to fly to Austin amidst the final days of a campaign, Harris' wanting the interview to only be an hour shows that her team doesn’t understand the format she’s seeking to engage in.

Trying to cut a Rogan interview short makes Harris appear scared. Her team may understandably be trying to protect her from a gaffe, but the end result is that she’s missing out on opportunities that Trump is seizing.

Gahan said, “a lot of people are calling this the TikTok election. I think that's a nice headline, but that's not (generally) where meaningful change takes place. TikTok is a great awareness driver and audience development tool, but to drive action… long form content moves the needle.”

Long form content allows for deep parasocial bonding, and Trump going on podcasts like Impaulsive or Theo Von’s This Past Weekend, gives fans of those podcasts the opportunity to parasocially bond with him as well.

“These parasocial relationships are critical,” said Gahan. “Impressions are not created equal. This bond is what drives meaningful engagement —something short form creators just can't achieve to the same degree.”

“The left is not doing these type of long form engagements or outreach,” he added.

All of this made me think of Ashley Carmen’s recent Bloomberg piece on how podcasts have had a breakout election cycle. In the years since Trump was first elected, the medium has gone mainstream, people are trusting podcasters far more, and Gen Z really started listening.

Carmen pulled together some relevant stats that show this shift:

• Podcast hosts can influence their audience more than other media formats, with over 53% of Gen Z reporting that they are influenced by ads they hear while listening to podcasts more than ads in other places.

• Carmen reports, “a few different studies suggest people trust podcasters more than other media personalities, particularly when it comes to hearing about the news.”

  • Research from Deloitte last year found that 75% of surveyed respondents said they agreed with the statement, “I trust the podcast hosts I listen to.”

  • Pew Research found last year that most people who get news from podcasts either say they trust that news more than the news they receive from other sources (31%) or trust it about the same (55%).”

The TikTok election that wasn’t

Content creator and digital strategist Jules Terpak and I were texting about the state of things the other day and she said, “This has turned out to be way less of a TikTok election than people initially projected.” I completely agree with this assessment.

It feels like TikTok, with a ban on the app looming, has faded more into the background in recent months. The platform had a more direct impact on the 2020 cycle when it was being leveraged as a powerful tool for progressive activism. Now, thanks to aggressive government crackdown in reaction to progressive speech on the app, coupled with the platform’s pivot toward shopping and ecommerce, a lot of that activism has been defanged and the app overall feels neutered.

The 2024 cycle seems much more shaped by podcasts and X. And speaking of X…

On Elon Musk’s X, Republicans go viral as Democrats disappear

Republicans are “posting more, getting followed more and going viral more now that Elon Musk, the world’s richest Trump supporter, is running the show,” according to WaPo analysis.

• Nearly all of the 33 tweets with more than 20 million views since last summer came from Republicans.

• The most viral posts warned “you’re not safe in Democrat-run Philadelphia” and included a meme relating to the bogus Trump-repeated claim that Haitian migrants in Ohio were eating cats.

“It’s not a right-leaning platform, it’s right-led,” said Shannon McGregor, an associate professor at the University of North Carolina who studies social media platforms.

The shift has alarmed White House officials, who worry their official X account’s drop in engagement could hinder their ability to reach Americans during moments of crisis, according to a person familiar with Biden administration discussions on the matter.

The White House’s account dropped from an average of more than 200,000 views per tweet last summer to roughly 100,000 today, the analysis found.

This is not to say that Democrats are all failing and Harris will flop. Harris’ digital and rapid response teams have a ton of brilliant and amazing people working on them. The campaign is also buoyed by a stable of centrist Democrat influencers working to get messaging out whether through Jubilee videos or live commentary.

But Harris and all Democrats (along with those further to the left) are up against an increasingly challenging digital landscape that is built to boost and reward right wing ideology. Those challenges won’t end if she wins next week.

You’re about to hear a lot more about Dude Perfect

The sports YouTube group, Dude Perfect, known for their jaw-dropping trick shots, sports stunts, and family-friendly comedy, is opening an 80,000-square-foot entertainment destination headquartered in Frisco, TX. The HQ will feature things like a Dude Perfect museum, mini-golf course, and restaurants. The 25-person company plans to double in size in the next 12 to 18 months. Business Insider reports:

Dude Perfect just hired their first CEO, Andrew Yaffe, to try to grow the company into a full-fledged media empire. Earlier this year, the group landed a $100 million-plus investment from Highmount Capital, estimating revenue this year would be over $50 million.

Movie theaters are trying everything to get you to show up

'HERETIC' follows two missionaries who become trapped and are forced to prove their faith through a twisted cat-and-mouse game.

I’m so fascinated by all the stops movie theaters are pulling out right now to try to get people to show up. Over the summer, Twisters rolled out in 4DX, with shaking seats and water spraying during stormy moments. Now, A24 has announced “multi-sensory experience” screenings of its new supernatural horror movie Heretic, at Alamo Drafthouse. Moviegoers will be able to smell scents from the new film, including the aroma of blueberry pie.

Joya Studio, a company that uses cold-air diffusion to disperse the smells throughout the theater, partnered with A24 on the release. Movie goers will also be given scratch-and-sniff cards commemorating the film's release.

I haven’t seen the movie yet, so I’m not sure how much smell plays a role in the film, but I think this stunt is indicative of a wider shift where going to the movies is less and less about the movie itself and more about the experience. Movie theaters today are becoming more theme park-like, with multi sensory experiences, ticketed seats, and multi-course dining offerings.

These changes make the experience of going to the movies feel more like an event, but it’s also starting to feel like these theaters are doing too much. I’m already missing the classic sit-back-and-relax movie experience of yesteryear tbh.

The Talk Tuah podcast is flopping

Almost immediately after going viral on social media as “Hawk Tuah Girl,” Haliey Welch cashed in by landing a podcast deal sponsored by online betting platform Betr.

The show’s first guest, Whitney Cummings, actually made for an entertaining episode, but since then it’s been downhill. The absurdity of the show itself made it a meme, but now people mostly just use it as an example of brain rot content (low quality content made for people who’s minds have been melted into mush). The hype is fading fast, and people can’t seem to figure out who the podcast is even for.

What I’m reading

25 Years of Indecision With Jon Stewart

Before he left his post at The Daily Show, Stewart was America’s voice of reason. Times have changed. Has he? - The Nation

• “Stewart compared The Daily Show to a Mexican restaurant, reworking the same basic ingredients into a range of menu items. The analogy is uncharitable to the complexities of Mexican cuisine, but his point tracks, in a way.”

How Comic Sans became the Crocs of fonts

After 30 years of abuse, Comic Sans is ready for its redemption. - Fast Company

• In 2011, graphic designers Holly and David Combs—a couple from Indianapolis who bonded over their hatred of the font—issued a long manifesto “to ban the use of the font Comic Sans and preserve the quality and traditions of typography.

Roll Out the Red Carpet for Bald Ann Dowd

By day, Alison Sivitz works in advertising. By night, she’s the voice of your favorite pop-culture account. - The Cut

• My favorite quote: “I think finding my way into a writers’ room would be very cool. And I really want to make it to the live taping of the John Mulaney–Chappell Roan SNL show.” (shoot your shot girl!)

Facebook Is Auto-Generating Militia Group Pages

Ahead of the election, anti-government militias are using Facebook to recruit, coordinate training, and promote ballot box stakeouts. Meta isn’t shutting their groups down and is even auto-generating pages. - WIRED

The Menopause Queen’s Gambit

Dr. Mary Claire Haver has amassed a following in the millions, all on the promise that women can thrive through menopause. Not everyone is celebrating her rise. - NYT

• Fun detail: About three dozen physician influencers formed a group that calls itself the “menoposse” and enthusiastically supports one another’s work on Instagram and TikTok.

How brands can navigate the murky world of online streaming

Streamers, known for live-streamed gaming or comedy content, are building huge followings among Gen Alpha and Gen Z. But with their volatile content sometimes resulting in scandal, it’s risky business for brands. - Vogue Business

How Two Irreverent Historians Made Their Podcast a Global Sensation

‘The Rest Is History’ dives into the past with raucous good cheer and has captured a growing audience of young listeners. - WSJ

• The two men met at a charity event then went to each other’s homes to watch the extended versions of all three “Lord of the Rings” movies together.

More fun stuff

The horny, bizzare, and irreverent Dunkin Spider is this Halloween season’s undeniable breakout star.

The donut chain’s unhinged social media campaign finally got me to follow Dunkin on IG. There’s even Dunkin Spider merch.

I cannot recommend walking around Burbank with some friends during Halloween more highly.

The Geoguesser guy has evolved to knowing exactly where on earth you are based on the different blues in the sky.

The arrested Timothée Chalamet lookalike speaks out!

Jaywalking is finally legal in NYC.

I’m quoted in this article about the rise of ethical true crime creators.

Zhang Yiming, founder of TikTok’s owner ByteDance, just became China's richest man.

There's currently a viral troll campaign on X where conservatives are pretending to have illegally voted for Donald Trump as foreign citizens to make some sort of inane commentary on voter ID laws.

The Catholic church got an anime mascot and there’s already people doing cosplay.

YouTubers Esfand and ExtraEmily ran into the guy who runs a lot of popular Twitter accounts including Non Aesthetic Things, Internet Hall of Fame, Nature is Amazing, etc at a tailgate. He says he makes around $30,000 a week from monetization.

GQ compiled some of the best Spotify playlists to break free of the algorithm.

Charli D’Amelio makes her Broadway debut.

We are about to be plagued with copycat lookalike competitions I fear.

Cami Téllez, the Gen Z marketing guru behind DTC lingerie brand Parade, is relaunching the 55-year-old hosiery brand L’eggs.

I love how earnest the Fediverse people are, but I don’t think people will use this new Fediverse TikTok clone Loops.

A tattoo shop in Colorado Springs is in a dispute with a much taller apartment building next door. So they decided to use their artistic skills to get back at them by painting a dick-filled mural on their roof for everyone in the apartments to see.

How is the Bartram family so good at pumpkin carving?!

Bartram family pumpkins (via DavidBartram_)

Kyle Chayka on the banality of online recommendation culture.

Interesting thread on how TikTok creator insights is an underrated market research tool.

A leaked training presentation from a NY's largest hospital system shows that doctors are being encouraged to use AI for everything from writing emails to summarizing clinical evaluations to "diagnosing pancreatic cancer" and "parse" health records. Sounds bad!

The iconic intersection of Myrtle Avenue and Broadway finally got the NYT feature it deserves.

ABC allegedly aired an election results test by accident that showed Harris winning Pennsylvania by 5% during a Formula 1 race. Conspiracy theorists are already using the clip to claim the election is rigged.

Ella Emhoff launched a crafting Substack.

Honestly who hasn’t wanted to take a bite out of a little baby’s chonky leg before

Have we reached peak Costcoverse? AJ Befumo doesn’t think so

Over the past few months, AJ Befumo and Big Justice, a father-son duo known as the Costco guys has become inescapable. Their family-friendly videos about the grocery chain's chicken bakes and double-chunk chocolate cookies have earned them over 62 million likes on TikTok. Earlier this week, AJ, Big Justice, and their sidekick The Rizzler, appeared on Jimmy Fallon.

But before all that, I sat down with AJ Befumo for an exclusive interview. We dove deep into how he went from former pro wrestler to king of the Costcoverse and how he plans to grow his content empire.

Watch the full episode above and subscribe to my YouTube channel for another big interview dropping this week!

What do you want to see more of from this newsletter? Let me know!

For more great content follow my meme page, subscribe to my YouTube channel, and join my Instagram broadcast channel where I share links all week long.

Listen to my podcast Power User on Apple Podcasts:

Or follow Power User on Spotify: